Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute
QURI is a nonprofit research organization researching forecasting and epistemics to improve the long-term future of humanity.
Relative Value Functions: A Flexible New Format for Value Estimation
We just published a blog post outlining the details of relative value functions. This was touched on in the presentation I sent out yesterday. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EFEwBvuDrTLDndqCt/relative-value-functions-a-flexible-new-format-for-value The post has several code sections and tables, so I won’t attempt to copy that over here. Instead,
Presentation: Estimating Everything Everywhere Always
An overview of our plan at QURI
Upcoming QURI Events
An online presentation this Thursday, and a Berkeley meetup next Tuesday
Conveniences in Thought and Communication
Communication often makes winners and losers. I propose we use the term "convenience" to help clarify what's going on.
Patrick Gruban, on Effective Altruism Germany and Nonprofit Boards in EA
Here’s a discussion between myself and Patrick Gruban. Patrick Gruban is the co-director and managing director of Effective Altruism Germany and the co-founder and managing director of Rosy Green Wool. He is a serial entrepreneur with over 25 years of experience in different fields, including software development, visual arts,
Squiggle 0.7.0
New functions, ESM Modules, a better Playground editor, several fixes
Owain Evans on Ideas for Language Models
A varied discussion about Truthful AI, AI composition, and possibilities for language models like ChatGPT
Accuracy Agreements: A Flexible Alternative to Prediction Markets
A simple proposal to convert money into complex forecasts
Some estimation work in the horizon
Too much work for any one group
Estimation for sanity checks
I feel very warmly about using relatively quick estimates to carry out sanity checks, i.e., to quickly check whether something is clearly off, whether some decision is clearly overdetermined, or whether someone is just bullshitting. This is in contrast to Fermi estimates, which aim to arrive at an estimate
Winners of the Squiggle Experimentation and 80,000 Hours Quantification Challenges
In the second half of 2022, we announced the Squiggle Experimentation Challenge and a $5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths. For the first contest, we got three long entries. For the second we got five, but most were fairly short. This post
Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical
Epistemic status: much ado about nothing.
