Ozzie Gooen

Ozzie Gooen

Ozzie Gooen
Members

LLM-Secured Systems: A General-Purpose Tool For Structured Transparency

Researcher Notes: This is a semi-polished ideation & formalization post. I spent about a week on it. It's a bit outside our main work at QURI, but I thought it was promising enough to be worth some investigation. I've done some reading into this area, and

Ozzie Gooen
Members

Manifest 2024 & Squiggle

ManifestManifest is a forecasting and prediction markets festival hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9, 2024. Berkeley, California. Manifest 2024 was this last week, along with Manifest Summer Camp. You can see the schedules for these here. I gave two Squiggle workshops, one Squiggle presentation, and three focused events. Each session

Ozzie Gooen
Members

"Full Automation" is a Slippery Metric

Research Status: Written & researched quickly. I think the key point is fairly simple and obvious. I relied on Claude to help with rewriting. There's been a growing interest in predicting when various products or jobs will be "fully automated." Will we soon have popular movies,

Ozzie Gooen
Members

A Case for Superhuman Governance, using AI

I believe that: 1. AI-enhanced organization governance could be a potentially huge win in the next few decades. 2. AI-enhanced governance could allow organizations to reach superhuman standards, like having an expected "99.99" reliability rate of not being corrupt or not telling lies. 3. While there are

Ozzie Gooen
Members

Ideas for Next-Generation Writing Platforms, using LLMs

I've been doing more writing recently and have been heavily leaning on LLMs to help. This has been useful, but it seems clear that the fundamental LLM abilities are far outpacing the frontends and tools that use them. Here's a quick list of ideas that I&

Ozzie Gooen
Members

Higher-Order Forecasts

Higher-order forecasting could be a useful concept for prediction markets and forecasting systems more broadly. The core idea is straightforward: Nth-order forecasts are forecasts about (N-1)th order forecasts. Examples Here are some examples: 0-Order Forecasting (i.e., the ground truth) * Biden won the 2020 U.S. presidential election * The

Ozzie Gooen
Members

Scorable Functions: A Format for Algorithmic Forecasting

Introduction Imagine if a forecasting platform had estimates for things like: 1. "For every year until 2100, what will be the probability of a global catastrophic biological event, given different levels of biosecurity investment and technological advancement?" 2. "What will be the impact of various AI governance

Ozzie Gooen
Members

Upcoming Workshops and Talks, at Manifest

Manifest is happening this June 7-9th in Berkeley, CA. Also, this time they're holding a special "Summer Camp" the week before. I'll be at both. I'll give workshops at both events on making forecasts using functions, using Squiggle. I'll also

Ozzie Gooen
Members

Eli and Ozzie: Is Forecasting a Promising EA Cause Area?

Podcast Link There was recently a lengthy thread on the EA Forum about the value of forecasting as a potential cause area, between Eli Lifland and myself. We thought it would be interesting to expand on this in a podcast episode. Some Summary Points * Open Phil's expanded forecasting

Ozzie Gooen
Members

Distinctions when Discussing Utility Functions

Epistemic Status: Early. The categories mentioned come mostly from experience and reflection, as opposed to existing literature. On its surface, a utility function is an incredibly simple and generic concept. An agent has a set of choices with some numeric preferences over them. This can be Von Neumann–Morgenstern (VNM)

Ozzie Gooen
Members

Substack -> Ghost

We're leaving Substack in favor of Ghost, in order to get better customization. All of our previous Substack members have been migrated over. We're also using this new setup as our new website homepage. One benefit for subscribers is that this gives more control over subscriptions.

Ozzie Gooen
Members

New Squiggle Workshops this Wednesday and Saturday

We’ve been busy coding Squiggle these last few months, but this week we’ll have 2 workshops in the East Bay. There are a lot of people around for EAG, so it seemed like a good time. Wednesday We’re hosting an intimate person Introduction to Squiggle workshop at