The Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute is a nonprofit aimed at advancing forecasting and epistemics to improve the long-term future of humanity. We write research and make software.

QURI is a non-profit 501(c)(3) tax-exempt organization, EIN 84-3847921.


Our main active project now is Squiggle. We also maintain other software applications and do investigative research on forecasting and epistemics. QURI is now running Guesstimate and Metaforecast.

You can see an Airtable with much of our content and work here.


QURI is fiscally sponsored by Rethink Priorities. We have our own 501(c)(3) for key organizational assets, but use our sponsorship with Rethink Priorities to handle operations and employment.


  • 2016: Ozzie Gooen founds Guesstimate as a startup. This was made primarily for use by effective altruists to do cause prioritization.
  • 2019: QURI is officially formed as a nonprofit vehicle for useful forecasting research and infrastructure.
  • 2020: Ozzie leaves FHI to join QURI full time. Nuno Sempere joins QURI.
  • 2022: Squiggle is released in Early Access. Squiggle development becomes a larger focus. Slava Matyuhin joins QURI.
  • 2023: QURI became sponsored by Rethink Priorities. Guesstimate is absorbed into QURI.


Most of our focus is on our software, but we occasionally do consulting work. If there is something you think we could be a good reach for, please reach out.


Email us at hello@quantifieduncertainty.org. You can also find us on our Discord.

QURI is primarily based in Berkeley, California.


Our donors so far have included the Long-Term Future Fund, the Survival and Flourishing Fund, and several individuals. We're very thankful to all of these. If you might be interested in supporting us, see our donation page.