Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute
QURI is a nonprofit research organization researching forecasting and epistemics to improve the long-term future of humanity.
AI for Resolving Forecasting Questions: An Early Exploration
Thanks to Slava Matyuhin for comments Summary 1. AIs can be used to resolve forecasting questions on platforms like Manifold and Metaculus. 2. AI question resolution, in theory, can be far more predictable, accessible, and inexpensive to human resolution. 3. Current AI tools (combinations of LLM calls and software) are
Squiggle AI, Published to the EA Forum
Introducing Squiggle AI — EA ForumWe’re releasing Squiggle AI, a tool that generates probabilistic models using the Squiggle language. This can provide early cost-effectiveness models…Effective Altruism Forum LogoOzzie Gooen We have previously written about Squiggle AI here, but waited until it was more tested and we had a better
Wrapping up 2024
We’ve been busy with a variety of things over the November-December season, though few make clean public blog posts or releases. * Software improvements and maintenance * Squiggle: Published Squiggle v0.10 * SquiggleHub: Replaced GraphQL with React Server Components. This means that pages load faster and developer velocity should be higher.
Squiggle Workshop in Washington DC this Thursday
If you happen to be around Washington DC, I'll be doing a free ~1.5hr Squiggle workshop this Thursday evening. It will cover the basics, and I'll of course be around afterwards for extended discussion. Make sure to bring a laptop. See more information and RSVP
Squiggle AI: Better Annotation, Customization
We've been hard at work improving Squiggle AI since our last announcement. Our latest update introduces a style guide, flexible documentation steps, and improved workflows that make it easier to create clear, well-documented models. New Style Guide & Step One major challenge with the original version of Squiggle
Enhancing Mathematical Modeling with LLMs: Goals, Challenges, and Evaluations
Introduction Summary Mathematical models are important tools for reasoning and decision-making across diverse fields. With the advent of large language models (LLMs), there's an opportunity to integrate these AI systems with formal mathematical modeling, potentially enhancing the capabilities and applications of both. However, evaluating the quality and effectiveness
Squiggle AI: An Early Project at Automated Modeling
We're releasing Squiggle AI on SquiggleHub. Squiggle AI runs long sequences of LLM calls in order to write, fix, and improve Squiggle code. Use it here Squiggle AI is a significant improvement over our previous experiments with Squiggle GPT and simple Claude prompts, offering more reliability and customization
Current Claims and Cruxes on LLM Forecasting & Epistemics
I think that recent improvements in LLMs have brought us to the point where LLM epistemic systems are starting to be useful. After spending some time thinking about it, I've realized that such systems, broadly, seem very promising to me as an effective altruist intervention area. However, I
LLM-Secured Systems: A General-Purpose Tool For Structured Transparency
Researcher Notes: This is a semi-polished ideation & formalization post. I spent about a week on it. It's a bit outside our main work at QURI, but I thought it was promising enough to be worth some investigation. I've done some reading into this area, and
Manifest 2024 & Squiggle
ManifestManifest is a forecasting and prediction markets festival hosted by Manifold Markets. June 7-9, 2024. Berkeley, California. Manifest 2024 was this last week, along with Manifest Summer Camp. You can see the schedules for these here. I gave two Squiggle workshops, one Squiggle presentation, and three focused events. Each session
"Full Automation" is a Slippery Metric
Research Status: Written & researched quickly. I think the key point is fairly simple and obvious. I relied on Claude to help with rewriting. There's been a growing interest in predicting when various products or jobs will be "fully automated." Will we soon have popular movies,
A Case for Superhuman Governance, using AI
I believe that: 1. AI-enhanced organization governance could be a potentially huge win in the next few decades. 2. AI-enhanced governance could allow organizations to reach superhuman standards, like having an expected "99.99" reliability rate of not being corrupt or not telling lies. 3. While there are
