Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute
QURI is a nonprofit research organization researching forecasting and epistemics to improve the long-term future of humanity.
Squiggle 0.8
A much better editor and viewer, function annotations, and lots more
Squiggle: Technical Overview (2020)
This post was originally published on Nov 2020, on LessWrong. We’re moving this document here, to centralize our writing in one place. This piece is meant to be read after Squiggle: An Overview . It includes technical information I thought best separated out for readers familiar with coding. As such,
Squiggle Overview (2020)
This post was originally published on Nov 2020, on LessWrong. We’re moving this document here, to centralize our writing in one place. I’ve spent a fair bit of time over the last several years iterating on a text-based probability distribution editor (the 5 to 10 input editor in
The Squiggly language (Short Presentation, 2020)
A short presentation from 2020 about a very early version of Squiggle
Downsides of Small Organizations in EA
Recently I partipated in the EA Strategy Fortnight, with this post on the EA Forum. There are some good comment threads there I suggest checking out. Note: Our main work recently has been on making a “Squiggle Hub” that we intend to announce in the next few weeks, so there’
Relative values for animal suffering and ACE Top Charities
tl;dr: I present relative estimates for animal suffering and 2022 top Animal Charity Evaluators (ACE) charities. I am doing this to showcase a new tool from the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI) and to present an alternative to ACE’s current rubric-based approach. Introduction and goals At QURI, we’
Ozzie, on the Mutual Understanding Podcast
Hear me ramble on coordination, government, and estimation systems
Relative Value Functions: A Flexible New Format for Value Estimation
We just published a blog post outlining the details of relative value functions. This was touched on in the presentation I sent out yesterday. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EFEwBvuDrTLDndqCt/relative-value-functions-a-flexible-new-format-for-value The post has several code sections and tables, so I won’t attempt to copy that over here. Instead,
Presentation: Estimating Everything Everywhere Always
An overview of our plan at QURI
Upcoming QURI Events
An online presentation this Thursday, and a Berkeley meetup next Tuesday
Conveniences in Thought and Communication
Communication often makes winners and losers. I propose we use the term "convenience" to help clarify what's going on.
Patrick Gruban, on Effective Altruism Germany and Nonprofit Boards in EA
Here’s a discussion between myself and Patrick Gruban. Patrick Gruban is the co-director and managing director of Effective Altruism Germany and the co-founder and managing director of Rosy Green Wool. He is a serial entrepreneur with over 25 years of experience in different fields, including software development, visual arts,
