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Are the social sciences challenging because of fundamental difficulties or because of imposed ones?
Open Communication in the Days of Malicious Online Actors
Can we hold intellectuals to similar public standards as athletes?
Expansive translations: considerations and possibilities
Overconfident talking down, humble or hostile talking up
The RAIN Framework for Informational Effectiveness
Knowing Our Limits
The Elephant in the Brain
The Weirdest People in the World
Why everyone (else) is a hypocrite
Thinking, Fast and Slow
Rationality: From AI to Zombies
The Clockwork Universe: Isaac Newton, the Royal Society, and the Birth of the Modern World
The Goal: A Process of Ongoing Improvement
Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities
The Book of Why
Logicomix: An epic search for truth
Seeing Like a State: How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have Failed
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.
Predictably Predictable Futures Talk: Using Expected Loss & Prediction Innovation for Long Term Benefits
Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration Part 1
Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration Part 2
Predictive Reasoning Systems
Can We Place Trust in Post-AGI Forecasting Evaluations?
The Prediction Pyramid: Why Fundamental Work is Needed for Prediction Work
Prediction-Augmented Evaluation Systems
What if people simply forecasted your future choices?
Introducing Foretold.io: A New Open-Source Prediction Registry
How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of "Intangibles" in Business
The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
Probabilistic Models of Cognition
The Black Swan
A Student’s Guide to Bayesian Statistics
Bayesian Data Analysis
Foundations of Decision Analysis
All of Statistics
AI: A Modern Approach