| Name | Creation Date | Url | Authors | Column |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners | Apr 16, 2021 | Nuño Sempere | ||
Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool | Mar 7, 2021 | Nuño SempereOzzie Gooen | ||
Forecasting Prize Results | Feb 19, 2021 | Nuño SempereOzzie Gooen | ||
A Funnel for Cause Candidates | Jan 13, 2021 | Nuño Sempere | ||
2020: Forecasting in Review | Jan 10, 2021 | Nuño Sempere | ||
Big List of Cause Candidates | Dec 25, 2020 | Nuño Sempere | ||
Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems) | Dec 3, 2020 | Nuño Sempere | ||
An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work | Dec 1, 2020 | Nuño Sempere | ||
Squiggle: Technical Overview | Nov 25, 2020 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Squiggle: An overview | Nov 23, 2020 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Predicting the Value of Small Altruistic Projects: A Proof of Concept Experiment. | Nov 22, 2020 | Nuño Sempere | ||
Prize: Interesting Examples of Evaluations | Nov 22, 2020 | Elizabeth Van NostrandOzzie Gooen | ||
Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize | Nov 15, 2020 | Nuño SempereOzzie Gooen | ||
Are the social sciences challenging because of fundamental difficulties or because of imposed ones? | Nov 9, 2020 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions. | Nov 9, 2020 | Nuño Sempere | ||
Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle | Oct 23, 2020 | Nuño Sempere | ||
Open Communication in the Days of Malicious Online Actors | Oct 6, 2020 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Can we hold intellectuals to similar public standards as athletes? | Oct 6, 2020 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Expansive translations: considerations and possibilities | Sep 18, 2020 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Multivariate estimation & the Squiggly language | Sep 4, 2020 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Predictably Predictable Futures Talk:
Using Expected Loss & Prediction Innovation for Long Term Benefits | Jan 8, 2020 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration Part 1 | Dec 19, 2019 | Ozzie GooenElizabeth Van NostrandNuño SempereJacob Lagerros | ||
Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration Part 2 | Dec 19, 2019 | Ozzie GooenElizabeth Van NostrandNuño SempereJacob Lagerros | ||
Introducing Foretold.io: A New Open-Source Prediction Registry | Oct 16, 2019 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Shallow Review of Consistency in Statement Evaluation | Sep 9, 2019 | Elizabeth Van Nostrand | ||
Conversation on forecasting with Vaniver and Ozzie Gooen | Jul 30, 2019 | Ozzie GooenJacob Lagerros | ||
Impact Prizes as an alternative to Certificates of Impact | Feb 20, 2019 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Predictive Reasoning Systems | Feb 20, 2019 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Can We Place Trust in Post-AGI Forecasting Evaluations? | Feb 17, 2019 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
The Prediction Pyramid: Why Fundamental Work is Needed for Prediction Work | Feb 14, 2019 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
The RAIN Framework for Informational Effectiveness | Feb 13, 2019 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Three Kinds of Research Documents: Exploration, Explanation, Academic | Feb 13, 2019 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Overconfident talking down, humble or hostile talking up | Nov 30, 2018 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Stabilize-Reflect-Execute | Nov 28, 2018 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
What if people simply forecasted your future choices? | Nov 23, 2018 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Prediction-Augmented Evaluation Systems | Nov 9, 2018 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Graphical Assumption Modeling | Jan 3, 2015 | Ozzie Gooen | ||
Creating a Text Shorthand for Uncertainty | Oct 19, 2013 | Ozzie Gooen |